Motivation and emotion/Book/2021/Impact bias

Impact bias:
What is impact bias, what causes it, what are its consequences, and how can it be avoided?

Multimedia presentation (3 min)

Overview

What makes that dreaded dentist appointment so hard to make even though you know that one tooth really needs to be looked at? And why are some people so willing to sacrifice all their spare time to work extra hours in hopes of chasing that possible promotion even though all their relationships and health are neglected? The answer lies in what motivates us. At our core, humans are drawn to seek out positive emotions such as joy, happiness, pleasure and avoid negative emotions including sadness, pain (both mental and physical) and sorrow. Emotions are such significant factors when making decisions and assessing if choices will increase positive emotions and avoid or decrease negative ones and these predictions often influence our decisions. But why is making choices that will be good for us long term so difficult to make like going to the dentist and having peace of mind and a pain free mouth? And why are some people so blinded by the impact their choices are having on important areas of their life like relationships and their health when chasing a work promotion which they are so convinced will bring them happiness? The answer lies within affective forecasting and psychologists have discovered it to be the impact bias.

The Theory of Impact Bias

• Impact bias occurs frequently within affective forecasting. Affective forecasting is the act of predicting the emotional response to a future event. Impact bias is when the prediction of the initial emotional response is overestimated in both the intensity of the emotion and the length of time the emotion will be experienced (Wilson & Gilbert, 2013).
• Impact bias occurs for both positive and negative emotional predictions and appears for both life-changing decisions and more trivial judgements. Impact bias has been seen to occur within all genders, ages and intelligence levels (Wilson, Meyers & Gilbert, 2003).
• Impact bias has the potential to influence all areas of an individual’s life due to the role that impact bias has on affective forecasting. Affective forecasting is a crucial element for decision making and motivation as future predicted emotions are significant potential rewards or punishments. Happiness is one of the most sought after emotions and sadness is one of the most avoided so choices made to seek out or avoid are often keys factors to decisions (Wilson, Meyers & Gilbert, 2003).
• Due to impact bias resulting in the overestimation of future emotion intensity and duration this can lead to errors occurring during the decisions making process. When impact bias occurs individuals may put off important and even life-threatening decisions due to their overestimation of negative emotions. This can be seen in varying aspects of life including personal life choices such as ending an unhealthy romantic relationship due to fear of sadness after the break-up thus leading to longer lower quality of life due to the unhealthy relationship and time wasted with each other (Wilson & Gilbert, 2013).
• Impact bias can also lead to not only emotional trauma but can result in significant risk to the safety of an individual and their community. This can be seen when individuals avoid medical attention du to the overestimated discomfort, pain or embarrassment they anticipate from events. These events include avoiding COVID-19 tests or pap smears which are both crucial requirements for both community and personal health. It is clear that when medical procedures like this are avoided the results can be life-threatening.
• When impact bias is referred to as negative and positive it is referring to the overestimated emotions associated with them (positive = happiness, negative = sadness) not if the impact bias is helpful or hindering to an individual. Both positive and negative impact bias can play equally damaging roles in an individual’s life (Wilson & Gilbert, 2013).

Causes of Impact Bias

Focalism

Focalism has been identified as playing a significant role in the occurrence of impact bias. Focalism within impact bias is the mechanism of focusing specifically on the single event or outcome when predicting future emotions and a strong focus is aimed directly at the immediate emotional response expected to occur from the event in question (Dillard et al., 2021). When focalism occurs an individual neglects to consider other surrounding elements that will also be occurring during the event. Additionally, focalism excludes the consideration of future impact of the event and their potential impact on emotions (Noval, 2016).

An example of focalism within negative impact bias is avoiding going to the dentist due to the focus on the pain and discomfort that will be experienced from the event. While this focus is understandable an individual must look past the dental appointment and consider the further outcomes such as no longer having a toothache or feeling more confident with their smile. An example of focalism within positive impact bias could occur when striving for a job promotion. An individual may sacrifice huge amounts of time outside of usual working hours to demonstrate their initiative and dedication to their superiors while neglecting personal relationships and even their health. Those who are striving for a promotion often believe that once they are in a higher position of power or pay bracket they will experience happiness and life satisfaction. However, it is often reported that when individuals achieve their promotion goals they are disappointed in lack of fulfilment especially as time passes as their happiness has not increased and in reflection potential damage has occurred within their relationships and possibly their health in their pursuit if this promotion goal (Noval, 2016).

Consequences of Impact Bias

• Impact bias has been theorised to be a evolutionary mechanism that has served as a form of protection in earlier eras. It is believed that the impact bias would assist in avoiding potential harm by increasing the fear which resulted in the minimisation of risky behaviour such as heights, dangerous animals or unknown vegetation for fear of harm or death. Recently, though, there has been speculation that this out of date defence mechanism that is no longer needed within our modern society and is in fact doing more harm that good.
• When impact bias occurs with positive emotions an individual will often experience disappointment and confusion once the event has occurred and their emotional expectations have not been reached. This can lead to further frustration, sadness and at times anger due to the unmet expectations. Furthermore, impact bias can result in many varying degrees of negative results in relation to negative emotion forecasting. Studies have shown that many necessary and life-changing events have been avoided or postponed due to impact bias and can result in significantly worse results that for overestimated (Levine, Lench, Kaplan & Safer, 2013).
• An example of this is the fear of getting a flu shot entering flu season as an individual may have an impact bias towards how painful the injection will be. If the impact bias is strong enough the individual may put off getting the flu shot already and then may end up getting the flu resulting in an extended period in bed, missed work or study requirements, the risk of infecting those they are in contact with and feeling incredibly ill. When situations like this occur is it understandable that remorse is a common emotion and individuals often strongly regret having been so strongly swayed by their impact bias rather than make the correct and logical decision (Buechel, Zhang, & Morewedge, 2017)
• There has been an alternative assessment of impact bias and questions have arisen asking if impact bias is in fact a positive mechanism for decision making and can actually play a significant role in goal attainment. Some theorists have suggested that impact bias related to positive overestimation can actually increase motivation for some individuals as their goal appears even more desirable thus assisting in perseverance. The reality of disappointment once these goals are achieved and the results are not as emotionally intense or long lasting is still an inevitability but it has been speculated that the disappointment is manageable (Morewedge & Buechel, 2013).
• Impact bias has even been seen at times as a tool and some believe it is a crucial to motivation especially with tasks that are unappealing but the reward from their completion has been distorted to appear desirable. This leaves the question of is impact bias really an out of date evolutionally mechanism that is doing more harm than good in our current society of if it is still a needed tool to increase motivation to act and the risk of disappointment is an inevitable consequence that needs to be managed in itself.

Impact Bias Reduction

Focalism is a key contributor to the prevalence of impact bias and the reduction of focalism is assumed to automatically result in the flow on effect of impact bias reduction. A recent study compared different cultures and the degree that impact bias differed between them (Kent, Roger, Cathy, Michael, & Cheung, 2005). The study compared two cultural groups Euro-Canadians  and South Asian and measured their impact bias. The study showed that those from South Asian culture displayed lower levels of impact bias compared to the Euro-Canadian culture group. Further investigation suggested that this was due to the lower levels of focalism within the South Asian culture which is believed to be due to their form of thinking. While Euro-Canadian cultures are often observed as being analytical thinkers the South Asian culture has been seen as collectively being more holistic in their thinking (Kent et al., 2005). This increase in holistic thinking gives an individual a broader picture of the potential future and the emotions that will result from it. Therefore, it can be suggested that by increasing holistic style thinking and reducing the direct focus of the specific emotional impact on a specific event impact bias with reduce.

Conclusion

Figure 2. Our happiness influence our choices

It has been demonstrated that impact bias plays a significant role in affective forecasting which impacts decision making and motivation. It has been shown that impact bias can influences various areas of an individual’s life and does not discriminate between genders, age or intelligence. Impact bias is caused significantly by the focalism mechanism. Focalism reduces an individual's ability to see past the event in question and its immediate emotional response and fails to take into consideration surrounding influences and flow-on effects.

Although it has largely been thought that impact bias is a negative aspect of affective forecasting and there should be efforts to reduce it from occurring, new research has suggested that it could all be a virtuous tool. Impact bias when occurring at the right time can increase motivation and help maintain perseverance due to the high expected reward. This new idea must be taken with caution as there is clear evidence that impact bias can lead to significant disappointment and frustration from underwhelming emotional results from experiences. More importantly there is an increased potential risk to varying areas of life when negative impact bias influences decisions and motivations ranging from a personal emotional level to risking the health of a society as a whole if health risks are not acted upon directly such as testing for contagious infections.

The most significant evidence on how to reduce impact bias suggests that focalism reduction is key. Research on the most direct route to reduce focalism suggests that thought processes and thinking patterns can have a large influence. Studies show an increase in holistic thinking can greatly decrease the occurrence of focalism as an individual is able to see the “bigger picture” and will have less emotional weight attached to one specific event. Impact bias may never fully disappear but with increased mindfulness our society may increase in their healthy decision making which will benefit both the individual and society as a whole.

See also

• Affective forecasting (Wikipedia)
• Impact bias (Wikipedia)
• Impact bias (Book chapter, 2022)
• Motivated reasoning (Book chapter, 2020)

References

Aitken, J. A. (2021). Affective Forecasts for the Experience Itself: An Investigation of the Impact Bias during an Affective Experience. Current Psychology : Research & Reviews.

https://doi-org.ezproxy.canberra.edu.au/10.1007/s12144-021-02337-8

Bachmann, O. (2010) 'Predicting future happiness: an attempt to determine factors underlying the impact bias', The Plymouth Student Scientist, p. 60-85.

Buechel, E. C., Zhang, J., & Morewedge, C. K. (2017). Impact Bias or Underestimation? Outcome Specifications Predict the Direction of Affective Forecasting Errors. Journal of Experimental Psychology. General, 146(5), 746–761. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000306

Dillard, Amanda J et al. “You Won’t Regret It (or Love It) as Much as You Think: Impact Biases for Everyday Health Behavior Outcomes.” Psychology & health 36.7 (2021): 761–786. Web., DOI: 10.1080/08870446.2020.1795171

Hoerger, M. (2010). Cognitive Determinants of Affective Forecasting Errors. Judgment and Decision Making., 5(5), 365–373.

Kent C. H. Lam, Roger Buehler, Cathy McFarland, Michael Ross, & Irene Cheung. (2005). Cultural Difference in Affective Forecasting : The role of Focalism. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 31(9), 1296-1309. https://doi-org.ezproxy.canberra.edu.au/10.1177/0146167205274691

Levine, L. J., Lench, H. C., Kaplan, R. L., & Safer, M. A. (2013). Like Schrödinger’s Cat, the Impact Bias Is Both Dead and Alive: Reply to Wilson and Gilbert (2013). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 105(5), 749–756. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0034340

Morewedge, C. K., & Buechel, E. C. (2013). Motivated Underpinnings of the Impact Bias in Affective Forecasts. Emotion (Washington, D.C.), 13(6), 1023–1029. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0033797

Noval, L. J. (2016). On the misguided pursuit of happiness and ethical decision making: The roles of focalism and the impact bias in unethical and selfish behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 133, 1-16.

Wilson, T. D., Wheatley, T., Meyers, J. M., Gilbert, D. T., & Axsom, D. (2000). Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of personality and social psychology, 78(5), 821.

Wilson, T. D., & Gilbert, D. T. (2013). The Impact Bias Is Alive and Well. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 105(5), 740–748. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0032662

Wilson, Timothy D, Jay Meyers, and Daniel T Gilbert. (2003) “‘How Happy Was I, Anyway?’ A Retrospective Impact Bias.” Social cognition 21.6: 421–446. Web. DOI: 10.1521/soco.21.6.421.28688

External links

• Impact bias in student evaluations of higher education (Taylor and Francis Online)
• The Impact Bias in Self and Others: Affective and Empathic Forecasting in Individuals with Social Anxiety. (Research Gate)
• Why we make bad decisions - Dan Gilbert TED Talk (YouTube)