Should Ukraine go from recognizing the PRC (Peoples Republic of China) to recognizing the ROC (Republic of China, i.e. Taiwan)?

From Wikiversity
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Ukraine should recognize the Republic of China, i.e. Taiwan[edit | edit source]

Pro[edit | edit source]

  • Argument for Given (1) the PRC's/CCP's more aggressive foreign policy in the world, (2) its failure to become more liberal and more democratic since the Tienanmen Massacre, (3) ROC (Taiwan) has become more liberal and democratic since then, (4) the de facto Ukrainian-Taiwanese relationship, however unofficial, is arguably better than the Ukrainian-PRC relationship, however official, and (5) the PRC is inimical to both Taiwan and Ukraine, it might benefit Ukraine more to have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, even if it means ending diplomatic relations with the PRC.
    • Objection There is no indication that it would greatly benefit Ukraine more. It might not even benefit Taiwan more. The PRC would continue to trade with Russia, and the possibility of the PRC selling arms to Russia would increase.
  • Argument for Ukraine recognizing the ROC (Taiwan) could encourage other countries to do the same, particularly those bordering Russia such as Moldova and Finland. While USA might not join in, American politicians might regard Ukraine's move favorable (and Ukraine even more favorably), and maybe incentivize continued and more aid to Ukraine. Indeed, even India might like it as they've had their own issues with Beijing. Indeed, some Russians might like the spectacle of a Slavic/East European country defying a country that still somewhat idolizes Mao (who warred with Russia in the Sino-Soviet split).
  • Argument for It would help Ukraine make up for its sale of an aircraft carrier to the PRC.
    • Objection Those were different times: Deng, not Xi, was in power, and Ukraine seemed to not be as democratic or liberal as is now.
  • Argument for It would cause Xi Jinping to lose face for siding with Russia.
    • Objection How would that help Ukraine?

Con[edit | edit source]

  • Argument against It would make the PRC very angry at Ukraine.
    • Objection The PRC probably doesn't like Ukraine already.
      • Objection The PRC would probably like Ukraine even less.
  • Argument against It would hurt Ukrainian-PRC trade, investment, and tourism, without increased Ukrainian-ROC (Taiwan) trade, investment, and tourism (at least not enough to compensate for the loss of the former). The PRC's GDP is over $20 trillion, ROC (Taiwan) is unlikely 6% of that.
    • Objection There is probably little Ukrainian-Chinese trade, investment, and tourism already. There are probably few Ukrainian assets in the PRC for the PRC to seize, and Ukraine could retaliate by seizing PRC assets in Ukraine.
      • Objection The PRC could invest in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
        • Objection and would be subject to Ukrainian regulation and possible seizure if Ukraine retakes the areas.
      • Objection Economic realities: if the PRC doesn't buy Ukrainian grain, their citizens would have to pay more for food. Will the PRC refuse to sell electronics and goods to Ukraine? Even if it did, Ukrainians could buy such from third countries with little mark-up.
        • Objection The PRC would boycott those third countries.
          • Objection There are over 180 countries in the world: it would be hard for the PRC to boycott them all.
        • Objection The PRC might ban Ukrainian tourists from the PRC.
          • Objection Would this include pro-Russian ones and/or those in Russian-occupied Ukraine?
    • Objection Even at $1.4 trillion, Taiwan's GDP is over 3x that of Ukraine.
  • Argument against Many libertarians and anarchists probably believe neither the PRC nor the ROC should be recognized.