User:Charles Jeffrey Danoff/How-to Build an NBA Dynasty Notes

Resource type: this resource consists of notes.

inspiration for the potential of this work comes from Bill James's early Baseball Abstracts.

Overview

This document is an attempt to collect my thoughts (and hopefully those of many others) on the answer to this question:

How do you build a NBA Dynasty?

In October 2010 as part of my work with the P2PU Fall 2010 Course DIY Math I wrote a paper outlining this research, its background and where I might want to go next. You can find a PDF version of the paper here.

Relevant Ideas

• 22 Feb 2012 Tom Thibodeau news conference said something to this effect: "You play 66 games and then hopefully you make the playoffs. Once there whomever's healthiest and playing the best will win. I don't think you want to approach it as 'getting through something' because its not the goal, whatever you're going through, you want to keep the ultimate goal in mind." --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 03:37, 23 February 2012 (UTC)
• "The day of the trade deadline was good. I did what I always do. Worked out, did some rehab… You can’t control what’s going to happen so you have to do what you have to do. Talking to your agent is not going to change anything." - w:Caron Butler from a June 2011 blog post by him.
• "I probably look at this more simplistic than you want. It doesn't matter whether you're a former player or you come up through the video room, whether you come from college. You have to earn that trust from NBA players every day. It doesn't stop unless, of course, you win 10 rings. But even at that point, you have to prove that there's competency, there's a work ethic, there's a plan, there's an organization to your thoughts. Then, at some point, they believe you can help them achieve what they want to achieve." " - w:Erick Spoelstra from a June 2011 ESPN.com story on him.
  • Yin to Spoelestra's work-ethic Yang?
• On Inside the NBA tonight Charles said "Every great team needs a 'dude' and a 'crazy guy'". (e.g. 2011 Playoffs Mavericks have Dirk & DeShaun Stevenson; LA has Kobe & Ron Artest) ----Charles Jeffrey Danoff 02:46, 3 May 2011 (UTC)
• NBA dynasty ... its about making moves to give yourself a possibility to be great (thus acquiring great players?) --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 17:14, 10 April 2011 (UTC)
• i was thinking, while re-building is it more important to accumulate talent (e.g. krause w/pre rebuilding bulls) or to play solid basketball every year (jazz post stockton/malone) ... need both, but maybe better to focus on always playing good basketball on some level and trying to make playoffs regardless of personnell (to degrees, saving cap space) than just getting as many good young players at 1 time? --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 01:09, 28 March 2011 (UTC)
• for some players injuries can be big problems vs. others whose "best ability is availability" from jeff van gundy (he said he heard it from nfl live) on por vs. oakland 27 mar 2011 game --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 00:16, 28 March 2011 (UTC)
• Bill Simmons, "Basketball is relatively simple. Teams win championships conventionally (an alpha dog superstar, an accomplished sidekick, a third elite player, than five or six role players) and unconventionally (three or four elite starters who complement each other, then four or five role players), but never radically. The Heat are thinking radically, even if it might not seem like it. They believe two alpha dog superstars -- both perimeter players, both creators who need the ball in their hands, both franchise players who developed particular habits carrying inferior teammates these past seven years -- can reinvent themselves as co-CEOs of a basketball team." from LeBron and Wade: Can it work? 29 Oct 2010
• Beckley Mason, "The best NBA coaches have a track record of enhancing their players’ awareness. Phil Jackson’s Zen philosophy of being “in the moment” is really about being fully cognizant of teammates and opponents. In Utah, Jerry Sloan’s persistent use of the flex offense has the interesting effect of increasing his team’s collective awareness level. Because they devote so much energy and practice time to one offense, Jazz players are intensely aware of the near infinite permutations of each set, and are focused on reading and reacting. With an internalized, cohesive offensive strategy, Jazz players are able to consistently rise above offensive expectations. See, being aware isn’t just for the greats, it’s also how bad players become average and mediocre players become Kevin Martins. In short, it’s how a player maximizes his potential." from On Awareness: The Intangible Skill That Makes All The Difference November 19th, 2010
• must a dynasty necessarily include something new, that couldn't be predicted by a mathematical equation. like a new pop hit needs to have something fresh to catch that is inspired by what came b4, but also not able to be predicted. e.g. jordan being first 2-guard led dynasty. \
• godel's theorum needs to fit into this analysis
• WSJ article about the amount of scouting/research a color analyst (Bill Raftery) does to prepare for games (alternative link)

* Basketball color analyst Bill Raftery carries a stack of DVDs in his briefcase wherever he goes. * It can take Mr. Raftery several hours to get through a single, 40-minute college basketball game. His fingers are constantly on the rewind and fast-forward buttons so he can make sure his diagrams match the plays he is watching. * During games Mr. Raftery keeps a notebook open to a page where he has written each player's season average for minutes played, rebounds, assists, points, three-pointers, field goal percentage, steals and blocks. Writing down the numbers himself helps him commit them to memory.

• Steve Young commented about the Packers following their Super Bowl 45 victory that they had a self-policing lockeroom. I think that's a really important part of dynasties, players can't rely on coaches or management to police them and make sure they toe the line, they have to do it themselves and hold eachother accountable. Maybe.
• Is an effective measure of a "truly great player" (a true "1" in terms of a leader, not the point guard position) number of all star games started?
• Announcer (Thurl Bailey?) from 28 Feb 2011 Celtics vs. Jazz game on NBA TV said that the Celtics's greatest strength is their mix of young and old players ... another announcer added how some NBA teams have problems b/c they have too many of the same kind of player --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 02:53, 1 March 2011 (UTC)
• Tom Thibodeau after 28 Feb game vs. Wizards ... every team in NBA is good & poor records usually result of scheduling/injuries/etc ... so if you don't prepare for the game the right way you could trip --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 02:53, 1 March 2011 (UTC)
• do a GM power ranking? adjusted periodically for recent transactions/results? ... include hoops analyst's gm reports? --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 02:57, 1 March 2011 (UTC)
• measure shooters by the 40-50-90 "magic #" http://www.thedaily.com/page/2010/11/07/030211-sports-nash-1-4/ --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 20:39, 3 March 2011 (UTC)
• Ben Golliver "Walk like a GM, talk like a GM" March 10, 2011 @ 6:29 pm "We have looked at three thoughts. First, that the NBA trade market is not nearly as efficient as it should be, but that analytics may help improve that. Second, that the short-term pressure on NBA GMs to win big is enormous and that some GMs have shifted course to focus on risk assessment so that they can swing for the fences when necessary. Third, that NBA executives are feeling limitations in their ability to use analytics to gain an advantage during the draft process and that non-quantifiables such as work ethic and dedication remain undervalued assets.

Taken together, we’ve reached a point where we can officially declare that the honeymoon period is over for the cult of advanced statistics in basketball. ... The message from the 2011 Sloan Conference, then, wasn’t the same as previous years: It wasn’t a declaration of arrival, a celebration of newfound success or even an admission of early struggles. Rather, it leaned more towards a high school reunion, where the like-minded from around the country, now fully content and secure with their place at the table, gathered to swap stories and best practices in front of a rapidly growing crowd of followers, anxious to learn how they might grab their own seat.

• kendall gill said something about how the key to defense in the NBA is the 2nd man? --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 03:33, 15 March 2011 (UTC)

styles of play

Havoc

Coach Smart's teams play a style of basketball known as "havoc". Smart described his "havoc" defensive philosophy during his introductory press conference as, "We are going to wreak havoc on our opponent's psyche and their plan of attack." On the court, the "havoc" defensive mindset is visible through the heavy use of the full court press and pressing after made baskets to disrupt opponent's timing of offensive sets. In his second season, VCU led the Colonial Athletic Association in steals. Offensively, Shaka Smart-coached teams play uptempo and push the ball after misses and makes with what Smart describes as, "The freedom to make plays in the open court". From Wikipedia. --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 03:03, 19 March 2011 (UTC)

Princeton Offense

• Princeton
  • Basketball's Princeton-Style Offense: A Simplified Approach for High School Coaches by Derek Sheridan (ISBN-10: 1930546920)
• Northwestern under Bill Carmody
• Georgetown under John Thompson III
• Richmond?

Triangle Offense

• Tex Winter designed for Phil Jackson Bulls & Lakers teams
  • The Triple Post Offense Book by Tex Winter (ASIN: B000A7OVR6)

Pick & Roll Offense

• Jerry Sloan coached Utah Jazz Teams

statistics

• "sparkplot: creating sparklines with matplotlib" by Grig Gheorghiu found via E.T. it has an example of sparklines used to quickly analyze a lakers season that i think would be helpful to have in a big quantity to evaluate teams.

APBRmetrics in the NBA

• Google Book Search for "nba statistics" http://www.google.com/search?q=%22NBA%20statistics%22&tbs=bks:1 --Charles Jeffrey Danoff 07:48, 20 December 2010 (UTC)
• The question of Lakers vs. Heat is a defining battle in the statistical revolution by C.A. Clark on Oct 28, 2010 8:30 AM PDT in Editorial
  • The basketball statistical revolution is coming. Slowly but surely, advanced statistics are creeping into the game. The signs are everywhere: John Hollinger is a prominent national basketball writer for ESPN, primarily on the basis of his statistical model for player evaluation, PER. Daryl Morey and Rich Cho are two of the youngest GMs in the league, and both have foundations less rooted in basketball than in statistics. More than half the league's teams employ at least one full-time analyst devoted to statistical work. Regardless of how you feel about advanced stats, it is impossible to ignore the growing impact they have on the modernizing NBA.
    • via The 10-man rotation, starring Tyrus Thomas dancin’ away via pingback from NBA Predictions 2010-11

cf.

• The October 26th, 2010 version of Re-Booting Modeling Wins in the NBA: A Work in Progress … Notepad a document I created for notes on the How-to paper published that day.
• My original write-up of an Independent Study I did as a Colgate University undergrad on the Determinants of Success in the NBA: Re-Booting Modeling Wins in the NBA: A Work in Progress …
• Freedarko for a philosophical take on the question.

Resources

• Basketball Prospectus
• Knickerblogger.net Stats Page
• Does anybody know of a real time sports scores/stats web service? (closed) - way to get text based box scores for data/archival purposes?

to-read

• Second Wind by Bill Russell
• Basketball on Paper
• Wages & Wins
  • Academic articles from Wages of Wins
• Dan Rosenbaum's NBA Blog
• Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
• Statistics in Sports: A Section of the American Statistical Association
• Presentations from 2010 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SYMPOSIUM ON STATISTICS AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH IN SPORTS

to-do

• fit this research into http://www.aeaweb.org/journal/jel_class_system.php
• explore panels and papers from this conference http://www.sloansportsconference.com/panels-2/